1 | Set Include( "serie.oza" ); |
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2 | |
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3 | Date MMC_DefIni = y2005m01d01; |
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4 | Date MMC_DefEnd = y2013m01d01; |
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5 | |
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6 | NameBlock nb = [[ |
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7 | Serie _.serie = CliTotEst.SPFRes.Base.Sem.Disct.Log.53; |
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8 | Text _.arima = "P1_52DIF0_0AR0_0MA1.2_52"; |
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9 | Date _.iniEst = y2008m01d28; |
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10 | Date _.endEst = y2011m04d25; |
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11 | Set _.linearInput = SetOfAnything( |
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12 | @InputDef(0.1,Serie ((1-B)*(1-B^52)):(SubSer(Pulse(y2008m01d07, Semanal),MMC_DefIni,MMC_DefEnd))) |
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13 | ); |
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14 | Set _.transformation = SetOfReal(1,0) |
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15 | ]]; |
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16 | |
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17 | |
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18 | //serie a modelar |
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19 | Serie ser = If( |
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20 | ObjectExist("Serie","nb::_.serie"), |
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21 | nb::_.serie, |
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22 | { |
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23 | WriteLn( |
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24 | "AVISO: función MMC_Est.ExecEstFromModelEst, no se ha" + NL + |
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25 | " defindo en objeto _.serie en el NameBlock nb " + NL + |
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26 | " serie creada vacia. " |
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27 | ); |
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28 | Serie SubSer(CalInd(W,C),MMC_DefIni, MMC_DefEnd) |
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29 | } |
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30 | ); |
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31 | |
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32 | //arima |
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33 | Text arima = If( |
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34 | ObjectExist("Text","nb::_.arima"), |
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35 | nb::_.arima, |
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36 | { |
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37 | WriteLn( |
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38 | "AVISO: función MMC_Est.ExecEstFromModelEst, no se ha" + NL + |
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39 | " defindo en objeto _.arima en el NameBlock nb " + NL + |
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40 | " etiqueta creada como P0DIF0AR0MA0. " |
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41 | |
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42 | ); |
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43 | "P0DIF0AR0MA0" |
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44 | } |
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45 | ); |
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46 | |
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47 | //conjunto de inputs |
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48 | Set linearInput = If( |
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49 | ObjectExist("Set","nb::_.linearInput"), |
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50 | nb::_.linearInput, |
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51 | Copy(Empty) |
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52 | ); |
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53 | |
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54 | Set nonLinearInput = If( |
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55 | ObjectExist("Set","nb::_.nonLinearInput"), |
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56 | nb::_.nonLinearInput, |
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57 | Copy(Empty) |
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58 | ); |
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59 | |
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60 | |
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61 | Set boxCox = If( |
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62 | ObjectExist("Set","nb::_.transformation"), |
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63 | nb::_.transformation, |
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64 | SetOfReal(0,0) |
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65 | ); |
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66 | |
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67 | //constante |
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68 | Real constant = If(ObjectExist("Real","nb::_.constant"),nb::_.constant, 0); |
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69 | |
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70 | //inicio de estimación |
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71 | Date iniEst = If( |
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72 | ObjectExist("Date","nb::_.iniEst"), |
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73 | nb::_.iniEst, |
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74 | MMC_DefIni |
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75 | ); |
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76 | |
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77 | //fin de estimación |
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78 | Date endEst = If( |
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79 | ObjectExist("Date","nb::_.endEst"), |
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80 | nb::_.endEst, |
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81 | Succ(Now, Diario, -1) |
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82 | ); |
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83 | |
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84 | //extraemos el ARIMA |
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85 | Set arimaSet = Traspose(GetArimaFromLabel(arima)); |
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86 | //periodo |
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87 | Real period = SetMin(arimaSet[1]); |
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88 | //diferencia |
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89 | Polyn dif = BinGroup("*",arimaSet[4]); |
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90 | //autoregresivo |
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91 | Set ar = arimaSet[2]; |
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92 | //media movil |
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93 | Set ma = arimaSet[3]; |
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94 | |
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95 | //se define el modelo |
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96 | Set model = ModelDef( |
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97 | ser, boxCox[1], boxCox[2], period, constant, |
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98 | dif, ar, ma, linearInput, nonLinearInput |
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99 | ); |
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100 | |
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101 | //se genera la estimación |
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102 | Set estimation = Estimate(model, iniEst, endEst) |
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103 | |
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